Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Central Oregon Real Estate Market - Numbers Don't Lie


I remember my days as a short order breakfast cook back in the late 90’s.  I’d show up to the restaurant at 4:00 a.m. and start prepping the kitchen for the day’s-work ahead.  Peel and boil the potatoes, par cook a couple cases of bacon and crack a hundred eggs.  By 5:00 a.m. I’d be ready for those orders to start coming in.  There were shifts that had tickets piling up in the window and others when almost no one walked through the front door.  We would forecast some days to be busier than others and prep accordingly.  But no matter how much data we thought should predict our day, we could never forecast when that school bus full of dozens of hungry teenagers would arrive. 

In last month’s issue The Holiday Dip, I talked about how rates continued to drop, the seasonal slowdown, and how to make a knock-out artichoke dip sure to please everyone at your holiday get togethers.  This month we’ll discuss what is new for 2019, market updates, and prepping for the year to come.

Rates Holding Steady

The Fed indicated last month before the government shutdown that they would only hike the Fed Funds Rate 2 times this year instead of 3, likely keeping the 10 Year below 3% for a while.   

Interest Rates

While this should help the housing market in the short to midterm, the economy is expected to slow fearing an impending recession. 

Loan Limits Increase for 2019

Conforming loan limits increased to $484,350.00 from $453,100.00.  This means consumers can borrow about 6.5% more, keeping up with cost of living and inflation.  FHA raised many of their county loan limits.  For Deschutes County, FHA loan limits are now at $409,400.00.  Many of my collegues agree that this was a long time coming.  To check and see what your county loan limit is, click here: FHA LIMIT  

Central Oregon By the Numbers

Below are real-time numbers for Bend, OR as of January 22, 2018.  

What to Expect for 2019

There is an insane amount of data out there that can cause even the most grounded person develop anxiety.  So, what are we to expect for 2019?  Former Portland Trailblazers Forward Rasheed Wallace always used to say, “Ball don’t lie.”  Suffice it to say, the Numbers Don’t Lie either.  Existing home sales tumbled in December on a national scale to the lowest level since November of 2015. 

Graph courtesy of Marketwatch.com

It’s no big secret that we are starting to see a slow-down.  More Americans have a negative outlook on the economy and few are prepared for the next recession, whenever that may be.  2019 is shaping up to be a little slower than 2018 but it is not all bad news.  New Inventory in Central Oregon continues to be low and that means good news for holding property value and maintaining a strong sellers’ market.  While it might not be ideal for some, it does show strength for our real estate market.  So, strap on your boots and prepare for a wild ride in 2019!

This information is courtesy of Randy Vance with Premier Morgage Resources. 
Randy has been in the mortgage industry for 20 years and can answer any mortgage questions you have. Get in touch with him today!
randy.vance@pmrloans.com   541-280-8294